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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 22

Denver Broncos 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP