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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model