Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(9:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to BAL 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 28 for 16 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model