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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 20:20 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
69.0%
BAL
31.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.329 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.497 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: +0.244 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

KC

No players on the report.

BAL

Derek Wolfe DE Out Back
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Groin
Daelin Hayes LB Questionable Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Back
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 35
–
BAL 36

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:19 TD KC (14:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 14-S.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at BAL 34. 32-T.Mathieu for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 10:42 TD BAL (10:42) (Shotgun) 34-T.Williams left end to KC 1 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes; 49-D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (21-M.Hughes), recovered by BAL-13-D.Duvernay at KC 2. 13-D.Duvernay for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – BAL 6
  • Q1 06:12 TD KC (6:12) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BAL 7
  • Q2 03:26 TD BAL (3:26) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – BAL 13
  • Q2 00:54 TD KC (:54) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – BAL 14
  • Q2 00:07 FG BAL (:07) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. KC 21 – BAL 17
  • Q3 12:01 TD KC (12:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – BAL 17
  • Q3 09:39 TD BAL (9:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – BAL 23
  • Q3 07:07 TD KC (7:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – BAL 24
  • Q4 14:21 TD BAL (14:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 35 – BAL 30
  • Q4 03:18 TD BAL (3:18) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 35 – BAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:12) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to BAL 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 28 for 16 yards (23-A.Watts).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:23) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to BAL 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (53-A.Hitchens).