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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to BAL 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model