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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 36 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (53-A.Hitchens).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model