Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Los Angeles Rams 17

(10:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LA 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-T.Atwell to LA 39 for no gain (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model