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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

LA
90.6%
IND
9.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.424 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.698 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.212 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Carson Wentz (IND) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

LA 33
–
IND 17
Projected margin: LA by 16 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LA

No players on the report.

IND

Xavier Rhodes CB Out Calf
Braden Smith T Out Foot
Julian Blackmon S Questionable Back
Eric Fisher T Questionable Achilles
Khari Willis S Questionable Illness
Parris Campbell WR Questionable Abdomen
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Foot
Kwity Paye DE Questionable Hamstring
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 27
–
IND 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:23 TD LA (3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 14:57 FG IND (14:57) 3-R.Blankenship 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LA 7 – IND 3
  • Q2 01:55 FG LA (1:55) 8-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG IND (:02) 3-R.Blankenship 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LA 10 – IND 6
  • Q3 11:39 TD LA (11:39) 27-D.Henderson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – IND 6
  • Q3 03:46 TD IND (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 17 – IND 12
  • Q4 14:17 TD IND (14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at LA -4. TOUCHDOWN. LA 17 – IND 20
  • Q4 12:12 TD LA (12:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – IND 21
  • Q4 07:25 FG IND (7:25) 3-R.Blankenship 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LA 24 – IND 24
  • Q4 02:27 FG LA (2:27) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 27 – IND 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (8:20) (No Huddle) 2-C.Wentz sacked at LA 10 for -9 yards (54-L.Floyd).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (14:57) 3-R.Blankenship 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (1:55) 8-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LA 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-T.Atwell to LA 39 for no gain (30-G.Odum).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to IND 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to IND 37, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 41%

    (:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to LA 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at LA -4. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (7:25) 3-R.Blankenship 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (2:27) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 59%

    (:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to IND 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.