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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to IND 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP