Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(2:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to IND 37, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model