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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to LA 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model