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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (No Huddle) 2-C.Wentz sacked at LA 10 for -9 yards (54-L.Floyd).

The Three Options

GO +4.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth +0.81 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model