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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 3-R.Blankenship 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.97 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model