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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to IND 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP