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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 3-R.Blankenship 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model