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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 8
Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7
What Actually Happened
(1:34) 4-D.Carr up the middle to PIT 6 for 2 yards (95-C.Wormley).
The Three Options
GO
+3.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.20 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.31 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
