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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

LV
42.9%
PIT
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.024 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.165 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LV

Richie Incognito G Out Calf
Josh Jacobs RB Out Toe
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Out Concussion
Marcus Mariota QB Out Quadricep
Roderic Teamer CB Out Ankle
Darius Philon DT Questionable Knee
Carl Nassib DE Questionable Pectoral
Yannick Ngakoue DE Questionable Hamstring

PIT

Carlos Davis DT Out Knee
Devin Bush LB Questionable Groin
Zach Gentry TE Questionable Ankle
Joe Haden CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 26
–
PIT 17

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:14 FG LV (3:14) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – PIT 0
  • Q2 09:37 FG LV (9:37) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 06:29 TD PIT (6:29) 19-J.Smith-Schuster right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – PIT 6
  • Q2 00:06 FG LV (:06) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 9 – PIT 7
  • Q3 05:07 TD LV (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-F.Moreau for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [40-J.Jones]. LV-4-D.Carr was injured during the play. LV 15 – PIT 7
  • Q4 11:23 TD PIT (11:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-92-S.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-51-T.Turner, Disqualification, offsetting. LV 16 – PIT 13
  • Q4 09:44 TD LV (9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 22 – PIT 14
  • Q4 03:47 FG PIT (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. LV 23 – PIT 17
  • Q4 00:24 FG LV (:24) 2-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 26 – PIT 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to LV 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:28) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to PIT 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 25 for 15 yards (24-J.Abram, 32-D.Leavitt). PENALTY on PIT-14-R.McCloud, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 16.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (3:14) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 61%

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool [77-Q.Jefferson].

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (9:37) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (1:34) 4-D.Carr up the middle to PIT 6 for 2 yards (95-C.Wormley).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 24%

    (12:22) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:22) 6-P.Harvin punts 59 yards to LV 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 10 yards (41-R.Spillane; 31-J.Layne).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 43%

    (1:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to LV 3, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-35-A.Maulet.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (13:03) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 58 yards to LV 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 16 yards (40-J.Jones).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:05) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 32 for 15 yards (85-D.Carrier, 55-M.Lee).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%

    (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

    (:24) 2-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.