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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model