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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 58 yards to LV 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 16 yards (40-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP