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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:24) 2-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model