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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model