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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool [77-Q.Jefferson].

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model