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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(:25) 1-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model