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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

MIN
25.9%
ARI
74.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: -0.304 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.347 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.204 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kyler Murray (ARI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
ARI 31
Projected margin: ARI by 11 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Out Knee
Everson Griffen DE Out Concussion
Harrison Hand CB Out Hamstring
Christian Darrisaw T Out Groin
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Quadricep

ARI

Devon Kennard LB Out Hamstring
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 33
–
ARI 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:27 TD MIN (14:27) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-K.Osborn for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 05:57 TD ARI (5:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – ARI 6
  • Q1 00:28 TD MIN (:28) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – ARI 7
  • Q2 09:05 TD MIN (9:05) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [34-J.Thompson]. Penalty on ARI-3-B.Baker, Defensive Holding, declined. MIN 20 – ARI 7
  • Q2 03:24 TD ARI (3:24) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – ARI 13
  • Q2 01:46 TD ARI (1:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 4-R.Moore for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – ARI 20
  • Q2 00:25 FG MIN (:25) 1-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 23 – ARI 21
  • Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 5-M.Prater 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. MIN 23 – ARI 24
  • Q3 14:09 TD MIN (14:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 4-R.Moore INTERCEPTED by 59-N.Vigil at ARI 38. 59-N.Vigil for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 29 – ARI 24
  • Q3 09:16 TD ARI (9:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-A.Green for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 30 – ARI 30
  • Q4 14:16 FG MIN (14:16) 1-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 33 – ARI 31
  • Q4 04:29 FG ARI (4:29) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. MIN 33 – ARI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:13) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 33 for 18 yards (28-C.Washington). Penalty on MIN-45-T.Dye, Illegal Block Above the Waist, offsetting, enforced at MIN 25. Penalty on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:36) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to ARI 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 4-R.Moore to ARI 27 for 6 yards (91-S.Weatherly).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (14:21) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:54) 3-J.Berry punts 43 yards to ARI 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (:25) 1-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:29) 3-J.Berry punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 4-R.Moore ran ob at ARI 18 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (14:16) 1-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:36) 14-A.Lee punts 60 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 2 for -4 yards (81-D.Daniels).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:03) 3-J.Berry punts 60 yards to ARI 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 4-R.Moore to ARI 36 for 5 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 56%

    (6:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to MIN 6 for 35 yards (24-M.Alexander).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (4:29) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:52) 3-J.Berry punts 32 yards to ARI 39, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:21) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to MIN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 23 for 15 yards (17-A.Isabella; 31-C.Banjo).