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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 3-J.Berry punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 4-R.Moore ran ob at ARI 18 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.88 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP