Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 33 for 18 yards (28-C.Washington). Penalty on MIN-45-T.Dye, Illegal Block Above the Waist, offsetting, enforced at MIN 25. Penalty on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model