4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 34 – Minnesota Vikings 33

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to MIN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 23 for 15 yards (17-A.Isabella; 31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model