4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 28 for 14 yards (55-K.Elliss; 88-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model