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NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NO
81.4%
CAR
18.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.302 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (NO): +0.825 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR defense: -0.219 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.390 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (CAR) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NO 28
–
CAR 19
Projected margin: NO by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NO

Kwon Alexander LB Out Elbow
Marcus Davenport DE Out Shoulder
Chase Hansen LB Out Groin
Erik McCoy C Out Calf
Pete Werner LB Out Hamstring
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Questionable Knee
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Questionable Calf
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Hand
P.J. Williams S Questionable Back

CAR

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 7
–
CAR 26

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:07 TD CAR (12:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 16-B.Zylstra for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 11:15 FG CAR (11:15) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. NO 0 – CAR 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass right to 2-Dj.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CAR 16
  • Q4 14:43 TD NO (14:43) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – CAR 17
  • Q4 06:00 TD CAR (6:00) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – CAR 23
  • Q4 03:26 FG CAR (3:26) 5-Z.Gonzalez 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. NO 7 – CAR 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (10:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-T.Jones.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 48%

    (6:56) 3-J.Charlton punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:20) 4-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 34 for 10 yards (24-D.Washington; 7-T.Hill).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (11:15) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:36) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 28 for 14 yards (55-K.Elliss; 88-T.Montgomery).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:33) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 23 for no gain (88-T.Montgomery).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 75%

    (8:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Granderson), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton, RECOVERED by NO-53-Z.Baun at NO 29. 53-Z.Baun to CAR 38 for 33 yards (70-B.Christensen).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 72%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at CAR 40 for -7 yards (90-D.Jones).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 28%

    (4:07) 3-J.Charlton punts 39 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:51) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 25 for no gain (88-T.Montgomery).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:49) 4-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to CAR 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 84-L.Humphrey.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 87%

    (3:26) 5-Z.Gonzalez 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:30) 3-J.Charlton punts 37 yards to NO 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.