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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 4-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to CAR 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.78 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP