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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 5-Z.Gonzalez 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model