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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model