Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 86

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 42 for 11 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams). PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 86, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model