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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Thursday 2021-09-16 · 20:20 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYG
37.8%
WAS
62.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to WAS: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) +0.322 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.037 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Taylor Heinicke in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick)
  • NYG defense: +0.265 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Taylor Heinicke (WAS) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
WAS 26
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYG

Cam Brown LB Out Hamstring
Evan Engram TE Out Calf
Shane Lemieux G Out Knee
Saquon Barkley RB Questionable Knee

WAS

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 29
–
WAS 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 TD NYG (7:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 11:22 TD WAS (11:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – WAS 6
  • Q2 04:12 FG NYG (4:12) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:23 TD WAS (:23) (Shotgun) 41-J.McKissic left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – WAS 13
  • Q3 09:12 FG NYG (9:12) 5-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 13 – WAS 14
  • Q3 04:48 TD NYG (4:48) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – WAS 14
  • Q3 01:35 FG WAS (1:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 20 – WAS 17
  • Q4 13:39 FG NYG (13:39) 5-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 23 – WAS 17
  • Q4 08:50 FG WAS (8:50) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 23 – WAS 20
  • Q4 04:55 FG NYG (4:55) 5-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 26 – WAS 20
  • Q4 04:41 TD WAS (4:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – WAS 26
  • Q4 02:05 FG NYG (2:05) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 29 – WAS 27
  • Q4 00:00 FG WAS (:00) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 29 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:41) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 42 for 11 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams). PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:08) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 24 for 8 yards (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%

    (3:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to WAS 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 61%

    (14:18) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 97-D.Lawrence).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to WAS 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:30) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-47-K.Hudson.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (4:12) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%

    (9:12) 5-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:38) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 35, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%

    (1:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 73%

    (13:39) 5-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%

    (8:50) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 66%

    (4:55) 5-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (2:05) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-J.McKissic right guard to WAS 38 for 4 yards (53-O.Ximines; 54-B.Martinez).