4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 34

New York Giants 20 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 5-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP