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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 4 at the 37
New York Giants 23 – Washington Commanders 20
What Actually Happened
(4:55) 5-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The Three Options
GO
+0.90 EP
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.44 EP
KICK
+0.69 EP
What Happened
- 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 34% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT
-0.24 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
