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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 61

New York Giants 26 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model