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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 17

New York Giants 26 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model