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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 27 – New York Giants 29

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-J.McKissic right guard to WAS 38 for 4 yards (53-O.Ximines; 54-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.93 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model