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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 39

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 97-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model