Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to SF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 36 for 13 yards (22-M.Epps; 54-S.Bradley). PENALTY on SF-36-M.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model