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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SF
55.7%
PHI
44.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.312 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.250 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.357 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.813 EPA/dropback
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SF 25
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Groin
Emmanuel Moseley CB Doubtful Knee
Arik Armstead DE Questionable Adductor
Marcell Harris LB Questionable Oblique
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Knee

PHI

Rodney McLeod S Out Knee
Marcus Epps S Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
PHI 11

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:49 FG PHI (4:49) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. SF 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 00:17 TD SF (:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – PHI 3
  • Q4 10:55 TD SF (10:55) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – PHI 3
  • Q4 05:12 FG SF (5:12) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – PHI 3
  • Q4 04:06 TD PHI (4:06) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-55-D.Ford, Defensive Offside, declined. SF 17 – PHI 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to PHI 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 32 for 11 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%

    (10:40) 8-A.Siposs punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:37) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 2 yards (81-T.Sherfield). PENALTY on PHI-21-A.Chachere, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%

    (4:49) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:27) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 76%

    (14:16) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-J.Kinlaw), Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs, recovered by PHI-88-D.Goedert at SF 35. 88-D.Goedert to SF 27 for 8 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:43) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SF 48 for 2 yards (98-H.Ridgeway).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 54%

    (7:21) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to PHI 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-49-T.Cannon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (4:28) (Shotgun) 84-G.Ward pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Hurts.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:43) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to SF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 36 for 13 yards (22-M.Epps; 54-S.Bradley). PENALTY on SF-36-M.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 36.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 26%

    (10:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%

    (5:00) 8-A.Siposs punts 32 yards to SF 8, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-50-E.Wilson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:27) 8-A.Siposs punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%

    (5:12) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.