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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model