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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 8-A.Siposs punts 32 yards to SF 8, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-50-E.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model