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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 8-A.Siposs punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.31 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model