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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.52 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP