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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 9-C.Nizialek punts 37 yards to NYG 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model