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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ATL
20.2%
NYG
79.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.281 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.180 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): -0.262 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

ATL 16
–
NYG 27
Projected margin: NYG by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Frank Darby WR Out Calf
Russell Gage WR Out Ankle
A.J. Terrell CB Out Concussion

NYG

Cam Brown LB Out Hamstring
Nate Ebner S Questionable Quadricep
Evan Engram TE Questionable Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17
–
NYG 14

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:01 FG NYG (7:01) 5-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 0 – NYG 3
  • Q2 08:19 FG NYG (8:19) 5-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 01:38 TD ATL (1:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NYG 6
  • Q4 12:56 TD NYG (12:56) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – NYG 12
  • Q4 04:16 TD ATL (4:16) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 85-L.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – NYG 14
  • Q4 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek. ATL 17 – NYG 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:22) 9-C.Nizialek punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (7:01) 5-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 18%

    (4:48) 9-C.Nizialek punts 42 yards to NYG 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 25 for 15 yards (52-C.Coughlin; 37-G.Brightwell). PENALTY on NYG-37-G.Brightwell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 25.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 18%

    (:59) 9-C.Nizialek punts 39 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (8:19) 5-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 49%

    (3:51) 9-C.Nizialek punts 37 yards to NYG 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to ATL 47, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 35-A.Williams to NYG 44 for 9 yards (36-C.Gillaspia; 37-G.Brightwell).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to ATL 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 35-A.Williams to ATL 16 for no gain.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:50) 9-C.Nizialek punts 58 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 39 for 19 yards (23-E.Harris). PENALTY on ATL-13-C.Blake, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 52%

    (6:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to ATL 5, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:15) 9-C.Nizialek punts 51 yards to NYG 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 29 for 17 yards (40-K.Smith).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 24%

    (1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.