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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 96

New York Giants 6 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to ATL 47, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 35-A.Williams to NYG 44 for 9 yards (36-C.Gillaspia; 37-G.Brightwell).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.33 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 96, worth -5.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model