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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 9-C.Nizialek punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.04 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP